BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Long-billed Thrasher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Long-billed Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+449%Since 1985
5Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Long-billed Thrasher has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 449% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Long-billed Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.15–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029
0.35Projected 2029 index
0.15–0.5695% range
±158.7%Backtest error
19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.130.54
20260.340.140.54
20270.340.140.55
20280.350.150.55
20290.350.150.56

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Long-billed Thrasher in Oaks and Prairies.
Three RiversTEXAS142024
HobsonTEXAS32024
CampbelltonTEXAS32024
Lone OakTEXAS12004
BriteTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.