BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole

IcteridaeForest birdsIcterus parisorum

Scott's Oriole has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
261RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Scott's Oriole

The Scott's Oriole (Icterus parisorum) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 261 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 7 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Icteridae · Forest birds

Notable Scott's Oriole TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.06–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.060.20
20260.130.060.20
20270.130.060.20
20280.130.060.20
20290.130.060.20

Where the Scott's Oriole Is Detected

BBS routes recording Scott's Oriole, sized by most recent count.

Scott's Oriole Population Trend by State

Scott's Oriole population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-50%197069
California-86%197049
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a5
Nevada-75%19709
New Mexico+17%197043
Texas+31%196957
Utah-58%198829

Scott's Oriole Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Scott's Oriole population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-73%197016
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-62%197058
Shortgrass Prairie+98%19926
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-27%19766
Edwards Plateau+277%197612
Coastal California-48%197121
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-87%197057
Sierra Madre Occidental-34%197029
Chihuahuan Desert-2%196951

Scott's Oriole Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 5% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.