BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Texas has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+31%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Texas. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.790.271.3
20260.790.271.3
20270.790.271.3
20280.800.271.3
20290.800.281.3

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shafter2619851969
Black Gap1720231988
Devils R Cyn1220241994
Indian Mtn1220241976
Delaware Crk1120151971
Chisos Basin720241995
Dove Mtn.720062003
Ft. Davis620232004
Bear Mtn620241988
Quitman Cyn.620091999
Cornudas620181968
Valentine519871969
Sierra Blanc520241999
Marfa420242004
Van Horn320242017
Pumpville320192006
Quitman Canyon 2320242010
Prairie Mtn.320012000
Toyahvale320241996
Marathon220232004
Utopia220241969
Valley Spgs220031994
San Saba220211999
Casa Piedra220231986
Mertzon 2220222022

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.