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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Scott's Oriole in Texas has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has risen sharply in Texas: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.80 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.80 (95% range 0.28–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.281.3
20270.790.281.3
20280.800.281.3
20290.800.281.3
20300.800.281.3

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shafter2619851969
Black Gap2020251988
Chisos Basin1520251995
Devils R Cyn1520251994
Sierra Blanc1420251999
Delaware Crk1120151971
Indian Mtn820251976
Dove Mtn.720062003
Marathon620252004
Marfa620252004
Pumpville620252006
Quitman Cyn.620091999
Cornudas620181968
Quitman Canyon 2520252010
Bear Mtn520251988
Longfellow520251968
Valentine519871969
Prairie Mtn.320012000
Allen Creek320251994
Ozona 2320252025
Van Horn220252017
Valley Spgs220031994
San Saba220211999
Casa Piedra220231986
Ft. Stockton220242004

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.