BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Scott's Oriole in New Mexico has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.77–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in New Mexico is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.77–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.722.4
20271.60.732.4
20281.60.752.4
20291.60.762.4
20301.60.772.4

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatchet Peak1220251992
Red Rock820251992
Engle819881979
Gage720251968
Salt Lake720011999
Mesilla620001993
Sunshine Wll620251992
Jornada520251974
Quemado519971995
Capitan Mtn.520171993
La Cienega420221969
Emory Pass420241997
Sabinoso420211987
Claunch320001987
Deming319711968
Magdalena320251997
Queen320191993
Claunch 2320252002
Salt Lake 2220252002
Horse Spgs220241979
Roswell220251980
Lakewood220211980
Gallo Arroyo220182005
Variadero220182006
Pinon220171992

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.