BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Utah has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-58%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has fallen sharply in Utah: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Utah is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Utah is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.22
20260.020.000.21
20270.010.000.21
20280.010.000.20
20290.000.000.20

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Castleton519701970
Shivwitz320241993
Escalante319991999
Notom320151993
Glen Canyon320231992
Arches Np220101989
Iron Springs220022002
Hite220232006
Wellington 3120172015
Desert View119981993
Canyonlands119991994
Vernon120011992
Castle Dale120182006
Lake Powell120062006
Hatch120212021
Snowville120232023
Jericho Junction120082007
Westwater120222004
Newcastle120062006
Monticello120032001
Gold Hill120082006
Jensen120051995
Fish Springs120222022
Bonanza120112011
Canyonlands120221987

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.