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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Arizona is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.003.7
20261.70.003.7
20271.60.003.7
20281.60.003.6
20291.60.003.6

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal1720241976
Dragoon1520091993
Squaw Peak1219701968
Mormon Lake719681968
Bates Well720231995
Wickenburg720232017
Rucker620091993
Cow Springs520221996
Cutter520001992
Mt Trumbull419791974
Bartlett Res420241993
The Gap319751968
Quartzsite320091977
Aztec Peak319781974
Peña Blanca320241975
Sunizona319961968
Willow Beach319941994
Clay Spring320241990
Hunt220181969
Florence219711968
San Simon220241970
Lukeville219801975
Toroweap220241994
Page220192006
Alamo Res.220241994

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.