BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Scott's Oriole in Arizona has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.003.7
20271.60.003.6
20281.60.003.6
20291.60.003.6
20301.60.003.6

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal1520251976
Dragoon1520091993
Squaw Peak1219701968
Mormon Lake719681968
Peña Blanca720251975
Bates Well720231995
Cabeza Priet720251994
Wickenburg720232017
Pomerene620251968
Rucker620091993
Cow Springs520221996
Cutter520001992
Sunizona 2520252001
Mt Trumbull419791974
Bartlett Res420251993
The Gap319751968
Quartzsite320091977
Aztec Peak319781974
Patagonia320251968
Sunizona319961968
Sahuarita320251992
Willow Beach319941994
Hunt220181969
Florence219711968
San Simon220241970

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradonevadanew-mexicotexasutah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.