BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in California has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-86%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scott's Oriole Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has collapsed in California: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Scott's Oriole Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in California is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in California is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.44
20260.100.000.43
20270.090.000.41
20280.080.000.40
20290.070.000.39

Scott's Oriole Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joshua Tree 21220162013
Joshua Tree1120021970
Willow Spgs719811968
Haiwee Res620051976
Cima620211970
Poway519791975
Anza Borrego420241968
Big Bear419861969
Anza419861978
Green Valley320221970
Jacumba320241973
Big Pine320101968
Pearblossom320241970
Lockwood Val320191971
Kelso Valley220241973
Cholla Gard.220211995
Mt Pinos 2220142007
Yokohl Val219731973
Ubehebe219881975
Parkfield219941994
Goldstone220091968
Valley Wells220221969
Lenwood219771977
Athlone219761976
Cottonwood220191975

Scott's Oriole Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.