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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.005.0
20261.80.004.9
20271.70.004.9
20281.70.004.8
20291.60.004.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PortalARIZONA172024
DragoonARIZONA152009
Mormon LakeARIZONA71968
RuckerARIZONA62009
CutterARIZONA52000
Bartlett ResARIZONA42024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42024
Aztec PeakARIZONA31978
Peña BlancaARIZONA32024
SunizonaARIZONA31996
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO32023
San SimonARIZONA22024
McnealARIZONA22023
FlagstaffARIZONA12021
PrescottARIZONA12015
BlueARIZONA11981
PomereneARIZONA12024
PatagoniaARIZONA12023
Skull ValleyARIZONA12018
Forest LakesARIZONA12013
PinetopARIZONA11993
RedingtonARIZONA12023
AmadoARIZONA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.