BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has fallen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.31
20260.150.000.31
20270.150.000.31
20280.150.000.31
20290.150.000.31

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO72001
Cow SpringsARIZONA52022
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO51997
CastletonUTAH51970
Mt TrumbullARIZONA41979
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO42022
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO42024
The GapARIZONA31975
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO32000
NotomUTAH32015
Glen CanyonUTAH32023
ShivwitzUTAH32024
EscalanteUTAH31999
HuntARIZONA22018
ToroweapARIZONA22024
PageARIZONA22019
Navajo TrailARIZONA22021
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO22024
Cerro VerdeNEW-MEXICO22018
Gallo ArroyoNEW-MEXICO22018
HiteUTAH22023
Arches NpUTAH22010
House RockARIZONA12022
Black MesaARIZONA11992
YampaiARIZONA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.