BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.11.46.9
20264.11.46.8
20274.11.36.8
20284.01.36.8
20294.01.36.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShafterTEXAS261985
Black GapTEXAS172023
GageNEW-MEXICO152024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO122024
Devils R CynTEXAS122024
Delaware CrkTEXAS112015
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO102024
EngleNEW-MEXICO81988
Dove Mtn.TEXAS72006
Chisos BasinTEXAS72024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO62024
CornudasTEXAS62018
Bear MtnTEXAS62024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS62009
Ft. DavisTEXAS62023
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO52017
ValentineTEXAS51987
Sierra BlancTEXAS52024
MarfaTEXAS42024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32024
DemingNEW-MEXICO31971
QueenNEW-MEXICO32019
ToyahvaleTEXAS32024
Van HornTEXAS32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.