BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scott's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 1.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 1.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.46.8
20274.11.46.8
20284.01.36.7
20294.01.36.7
20304.01.36.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShafterTEXAS261985
Black GapTEXAS202025
Devils R CynTEXAS152025
Chisos BasinTEXAS152025
Sierra BlancTEXAS142025
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO122025
Delaware CrkTEXAS112015
Red RockNEW-MEXICO82025
EngleNEW-MEXICO81988
GageNEW-MEXICO72025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS72006
MesillaNEW-MEXICO62000
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO62025
CornudasTEXAS62018
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS62009
MarathonTEXAS62025
MarfaTEXAS62025
PumpvilleTEXAS62025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO52025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO52017
LongfellowTEXAS52025
ValentineTEXAS51987
Bear MtnTEXAS52025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS52025
DemingNEW-MEXICO31971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.