BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scott's Oriole In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Scott's Oriole in Coastal California has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-40%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Scott's Oriole In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Coastal California is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.33
20270.120.000.33
20280.120.000.33
20290.120.000.32
20300.120.000.32

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JacumbaCALIFORNIA62025
PowayCALIFORNIA51979
Big BearCALIFORNIA41986
AnzaCALIFORNIA41986
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA32019
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA32022
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21973
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA21994
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22025
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21970
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA22022
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA21974
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22014
AthloneCALIFORNIA21976
Anza 2CALIFORNIA22025
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA12004
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12025
VentucopaCALIFORNIA12001
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA12018
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA12018
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.