BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Coastal California has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-48%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Coastal California is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Coastal California is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.31
20260.110.000.31
20270.110.000.31
20280.110.000.31
20290.110.000.31

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PowayCALIFORNIA51979
Big BearCALIFORNIA41986
AnzaCALIFORNIA41986
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA32019
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA32022
JacumbaCALIFORNIA32024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21973
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA21994
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA22023
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21970
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA22022
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA21974
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22014
AthloneCALIFORNIA21976
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA12004
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12022
VentucopaCALIFORNIA12001
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA12018
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA12018
Anza 2CALIFORNIA12017
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.