BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-87%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scott's Oriole has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.002.0
20260.560.002.0
20270.500.001.9
20280.450.001.9
20290.400.001.8

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Squaw PeakARIZONA121970
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA122016
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA112002
WickenburgARIZONA72023
Bates WellARIZONA72023
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA71981
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA62005
CimaCALIFORNIA62021
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA42024
QuartzsiteARIZONA32009
Willow BeachARIZONA31994
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32024
FlorenceARIZONA21971
LukevilleARIZONA21980
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22024
Cibola LakeARIZONA22014
Gila BendARIZONA22021
Red RockARIZONA22014
Casa GrandeARIZONA22018
Ajo 2ARIZONA22017
UbehebeCALIFORNIA21988
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA22009
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA22022
LenwoodCALIFORNIA21977
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.