BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scott's Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Scott's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+98%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scott's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scott's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.06
20230.030.000.06
20240.030.000.06
20250.030.000.06
20260.030.000.06

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Scott's Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO42021
NinaviewCOLORADO22001
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO22018
VillegreenCOLORADO12017
LoganNEW-MEXICO11996
MentoneTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.