BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

55 species in this guild. As a group they are +49%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 3.2–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.83.14.5
20263.83.14.5
20273.83.24.5
20283.93.24.5
20293.93.24.5

Member Species In Minnesota

Forest birds species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-88%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-88%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae-73%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae-56%
Tufted TitmouseParidae-54%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-32%
Connecticut WarblerParulidae-32%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae-31%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-26%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae-20%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+1%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+2%
VeeryTurdidae+12%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+18%
American RobinTurdidae+24%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+28%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+52%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+57%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+63%
Palm WarblerParulidae+71%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+71%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+76%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+89%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+105%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+107%
OvenbirdParulidae+129%
Canada WarblerParulidae+156%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae+185%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+197%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+202%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+204%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+204%
American RedstartParulidae+270%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+300%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+306%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+343%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+353%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+359%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+367%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+378%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+392%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+444%
Pine WarblerParulidae+487%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+496%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+517%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+520%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+530%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+704%
Cape May WarblerParulidae+719%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+875%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+881%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+970%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae11×
Northern ParulaParulidae13×
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae19×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.