BirdAnalyst
Guild · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Minnesota

All statesMinnesota

82 species in this guild. As a group they are +32%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Minnesota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 3.2–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 3.2–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.73.24.3
20273.73.24.3
20283.83.24.3
20293.83.24.3
20303.83.24.3

Member Species In Minnesota

Forest birds species in Minnesota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae-88%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-87%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-85%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-84%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-82%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-77%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae-73%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae-56%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-54%
Tufted TitmouseParidae-43%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-35%
Connecticut WarblerParulidae-33%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-27%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae-27%
Wilson's WarblerParulidae-21%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-20%
Purple FinchFringillidae-19%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-19%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae-18%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-8%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-8%
Palm WarblerParulidae-7%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-6%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+2%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+4%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae+7%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+7%
VeeryTurdidae+9%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+11%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+19%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+23%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+33%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+34%
Canada JayCorvidae+34%
American RobinTurdidae+34%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+41%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+55%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae+57%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+58%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+61%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+72%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+74%
Blue JayCorvidae+75%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+76%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+80%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+85%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+101%
OvenbirdParulidae+105%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+119%
Canada WarblerParulidae+150%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+160%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae+167%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+176%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+189%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+222%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+230%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+259%
American RedstartParulidae+277%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+288%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+312%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae+313%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+329%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+331%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+345%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+355%
Pine WarblerParulidae+376%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+378%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+491%
Cape May WarblerParulidae+525%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+527%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+527%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+596%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+610%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+635%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+692%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+823%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+903%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae11×
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae11×
Northern ParulaParulidae12×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae12×
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae17×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.