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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Wilson's Warbler in Minnesota has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-20%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Warbler in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±356.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±356.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±356.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.14
20280.060.000.14
20290.050.000.14

Wilson's Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Wilson's Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenbush920132013
Hovland419911987
Lude220102001
Nett Lake220142014
Lockport120091986
Sawbill Lndg120051980
Mcgregor120232003
Sawbill Camp120182008
Jordan120221993
Glendale120222012
Waskish119811981
Red Lake120242003
Warroad120122012

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganmontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.