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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Wilson's Warbler in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+3%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Warbler in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.1–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 9.1–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026178.826
2027178.926
2028179.026
2029189.126
2030189.126

Wilson's Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Wilson's Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper River13620111993
Kodiak9119841983
Dillingham7820191993
Toklat7320241982
Yakutat (Short)6119841984
Haines5920251972
Yakutat5420251993
Chiniak5420251985
Thompson Pas5120251983
Cordova4920241983
Sheep Mtn4920251983
Kodiak 24920251985
Gweek River4720021994
Savage4320251986
Homer4219821978
Katmai N.P.4220251993
Maclaren4120251982
Chichagof Is4120241994
Dillingham (Short)4019841984
Togiak River3820051994
King Salmon3720251993
Paxson Lake3719971991
Sitka2920241993
Caribou Mtn.2720251993
Hope2520251985

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.