BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Wilson's Warbler in Nevada has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-21%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wilson's Warbler Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wilson's Warbler in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Wilson's Warbler Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 207% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±213.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+207%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±213.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wilson's Warbler in Nevada is projected to rise about 207% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±213.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.180.000.55
20250.180.000.55
20260.170.000.55
20270.170.000.54
20280.170.000.54

Wilson's Warbler Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Wilson's Warbler in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley1420001999
Austin220162013
Jarbidge120151997
Ranchogrande120161992
Sand Pass120112011
Comins Lake120092008
Fish Creek119981998
Humboldt Nf120191993
Sheldon Nwr120022002
Virgin Creek120012000
Ruby Valley 2120192004
Humboldt Nf 2120232021
Fallon120101993
Gardnerville120031996
Dobbin Creek119731973
Willis120122004

Wilson's Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahomainemichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkoregonutahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.