BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-billed Cuckoo Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Minnesota: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-billed Cuckoo Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.23
20270.040.000.23
20280.040.000.22
20290.040.000.22
20300.030.000.21

Yellow-billed Cuckoo Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little Fork619691969
Waskish519821982
Dawson319861986
Badger320012000
Lake Bronson320001999
Lakeville219821982
Arlington219831969
Knapp220181968
Glyndon219781978
Bemidji219801980
Beltrami219981967
Lude219981979
Frontenac220182018
Franklin220192012
Big Stone220061997
Red Lake219931993
Warroad220032003
Money Creek119911970
Chatfield119951970
Hartland120052005
Huntley120221980
Chandler120211976
Ash Creek120071978
Millville120111967
Minnetonka120181984

Yellow-billed Cuckoo Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.