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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Palm Warbler in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+71%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Palm Warbler Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Palm Warbler has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Palm Warbler Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±326%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±326%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Minnesota is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.05–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±326%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.050.29
20260.170.050.29
20270.170.050.30
20280.170.050.30
20290.180.050.30

Palm Warbler Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Palm Warbler in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Floodwood320241967
Crane Lake320222010
Cromwell220242001
Mille Lacs219941994
Sawbill Lndg220101984
Sherry Lake220222022
Jordan220221995
Greenbush220162008
Chisholm220232022
Hart Lake120022002
Debs119811981
Little Fork120132004
Lude120131996
Waskish119781978
Nett Lake120142014
Mcgregor120142002
Babbitt120081994
Blackduck120042004
Red Lake120221996
Warroad120071995

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemichigannew-yorkwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.