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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Palm Warbler in Michigan has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+123%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Palm Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Palm Warbler has surged in Michigan: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Palm Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 220% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+220%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Michigan is projected to rise about 220% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.04–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.020.36
20260.200.030.36
20270.200.030.37
20280.200.030.37
20290.200.040.38

Palm Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Palm Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine River420161992
Gibbs City320222022
Hiawatha Nf220242009
Ishpeming220232015
Cunard220152015
Tahquamenon219951994
Ontonagon119751975
Crystal Fls120042004
Brocky Lake120162016
Betchler Lks120231992
Shingleton120242024
Creighton120061992
Seney Nwr120231995
Big Island Lake120092008
Muskallonge119801980

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Other States

maineminnesotanew-yorkwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.