BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Palm Warbler in Maine has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+16%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Palm Warbler Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Palm Warbler in Maine. See the full index history below.

Palm Warbler Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Maine is projected to rise about 45% by 2027 — from 0.10 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±339.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±339.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Maine is projected to rise about 45% by 2027 — from 0.10 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±339.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.140.000.37
20240.140.000.37
20250.140.000.37
20260.140.000.37
20270.140.000.37

Palm Warbler Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Palm Warbler in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clayton Lake 2920112011
Wytopitlock619981996
Baker Lake420051996
Clayton Lake220011995
Big Twenty220071995
Northfield 2120221998
Biddeford119761976
Wilson Mills120221993
Nesowadnehun119931993
Greenwood120062006
Reeds119931993
Hermon120112008
Eastbrook119941971
Hancock120102010
Aurora120091989
Northfield119811977
Carrying Pl120151998
Baker Lake 2120112011
Charleston120081988
Seboomook Lk120081991
Greenville119981997
Benedicta120161998
Medway120171991
Grnd Lk Strm120001998
Ludlow119981986

Palm Warbler Population Trend in Other States

michiganminnesotanew-yorkwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.