BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Minnesota has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-18%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.20
20270.100.000.20
20280.100.000.20
20290.100.000.20
20300.100.000.20

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler520251975
Ash Creek320251975
Chokio North220112011
Huntley220242024
Worthington220242004
Redwood Fall120152015
Tracy120252024
Gluek120182018
Fairmont120252025
Glyndon120122012
Tyler120242024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.