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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Missouri has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Missouri: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.35.9
20274.12.35.9
20284.12.35.9
20294.12.35.9
20304.12.35.9

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frankford3320251985
Filley1720251975
Deventer1620252006
Centertown1420251973
Danville1320251974
Peace Valley1220251977
Rensselaer1120251972
Madison1120241971
Graydon1020251967
Syracuse1020241969
Rueter 21020252023
Eugene920252014
Mincy920252013
Huntsville820251968
Emden820242017
Miller820252014
Trenton720251972
Whitewater720251996
Barks720251994
House Springs720252022
Cascade620251967
Akers620251967
Bland620251995
Osage Beach620251998
Kingsville620251992

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.