BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Missouri has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Missouri: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.25.8
20264.02.25.8
20274.02.25.8
20284.02.25.8
20294.02.25.8

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frankford2620241985
Filley2020241975
West Plains2020242015
Whitewater1820241996
Rueter 21520242023
Auburn1320242014
Cascade1220241967
Danville1220241974
Madison1120241971
Huntsville1120241968
Eugene1120242014
Syracuse1020241969
Doe Run920242016
Peace Valley820241977
Emden820242017
Lincoln820242013
Blodgett820242013
Osage Beach720241998
Moselle720242000
Sticklervill620241970
Kahoka2620242009
Milford620242015
Mincy620242013
Deventer520242006
Sweden520241968

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.