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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.8–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.8–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.73.67.7
20275.73.67.8
20285.73.77.8
20295.83.77.8
20305.83.87.9

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha4320231994
Holdenville1720251967
Heyburn1720251992
Grimes1520251967
Wichita Mtns East1520252006
Lookout1420251968
Pocola1420091992
Woodward1320251992
Goodwater1220211992
Phillips1120251969
Cashion1120241992
Hooker1120252004
Sickles1020211996
Phroso920251991
Mcalester919911967
Matoy920251992
Mill Creek820251967
Big Cedar720241967
Ardmore720251967
Indianola720251967
Erick720241969
Chester719881967
Wainwright720131992
Keyes720242003
Skiatook720191982

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.