BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Texas has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
232Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Texas: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Texas is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Texas is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 2.8–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.74.2
20263.52.74.2
20273.52.84.3
20283.52.84.3
20293.62.84.3

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.3520091999
Pecos3520172017
Eldorado2220231975
Casa Piedra2020231986
Bear Mtn2020241988
Rachal1920231967
Coyanda Draw1820241994
Agua Nueva1720231969
Quitman Canyon 21720242010
Skellytown1620241994
Utopia1520241969
Tenmile1520192002
Delaware Crk1420151972
Langtry1320001994
Ft. Davis1320232004
Leakey1220241994
Presidio1220232000
Van Horn1220242017
Smyrna1120101995
Longfellow1020241968
Ozona1020221975
San Pedro1020231996
Loyola Beach 21020242010
Pumpville1020242006
Liberty Hill920231968

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.