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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Texas has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+97%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
233Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Texas: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.6 (95% range 2.9–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.84.2
20273.52.84.3
20283.62.84.3
20293.62.94.3
20303.62.94.4

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.3520091999
Pecos3520172017
Quitman Canyon 23020252010
Eldorado2220231975
Pumpville2120252006
Smyrna 22120252011
Toyahvale2020251996
Bear Mtn1920251988
Sierra Blanc1920251999
Agua Nueva1720231969
Ozona 21720252025
Casa Piedra1520251986
Devils R Cyn1520251994
Tenmile1520192002
Delaware Crk1420151972
Langtry1320001994
Girvin1220251975
Allen Creek1220251994
Coyanda Draw1220251994
Adamsville1120251972
Smyrna1120101995
Utopia1020251969
Ozona1020221975
Mertzon920181967
Clarendon920241968

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.