BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has risen sharply in Mississippi: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.2–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 2.2–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.72.29.1
20265.62.29.1
20275.62.29.0
20285.62.29.0
20295.62.29.0

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olive Branch2220011966
Amite River1920132008
Beverly1820111966
Diberville1819871979
Mt Carmel1720161974
Corinth1520241972
Lake Como1420101983
Macon1320241969
Neely1220121974
Aberdeen1120241970
Monticello1120172016
Tippo1120241996
Lake Mary919901974
Dundee820221970
Lucien820081967
Walthall819871970
Cybur820191966
Water Valley820182015
Moon820211996
Star820242016
Waynesboro720101968
Warren Vick720222018
Fayette620041966
Cockrum620241966
Forest620241972

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.