BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.77.3
20265.53.77.3
20275.53.77.3
20285.63.87.4
20295.63.87.4

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell2020191968
Ravenden Springs1820152010
Farwell1620182010
Compton1520221967
Stark1220241967
Augusta 21220162002
Ashdown1020231967
Maynard1020241968
Springhill1020222010
Russell920212010
Havana920212010
Nance920241996
Zion820241967
Hughes720231968
Rupert720241967
Coal Hill720231977
Lurton720231967
Fulton720241967
England720242010
West Tyler619831975
Boston Mtn.620241994
Old Milo520241967
Crows519901967
Yellville520222010
Kelso520162010

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.