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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.77.2
20275.53.77.3
20285.53.77.3
20295.63.87.4
20305.63.87.4

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saffell2020191968
England1920252010
Ravenden Springs1820152010
Farwell1620182010
Compton1520221967
Augusta 21220162002
Stark1120251967
Ashdown1020231967
Springhill1020222010
Rudy1020252011
Ulm1020251987
Russell920212010
Havana920212010
Hughes720251968
Rupert720241967
Coal Hill720231977
Lurton720231967
Yellville720252010
Wilson720252001
West Tyler619831975
Zion620251967
Fulton620251967
Old Milo520251967
Eudora520251971
Hope520251967

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.