BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Ohio has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

18×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Grosbeak in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.27–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.42 (95% range 0.27–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.240.54
20270.400.240.55
20280.410.250.56
20290.420.260.57
20300.420.270.58

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omega1320241972
Rome820251991
Enon320252013
Harveysburg 2220242024
Fulton220252025
Wilgus220091997
Ash Ridge220211992
Scioto Furn220132008
Kenton119911991
Napoleon120252025
Kunkle120172017
Tar Hollow120182018
Bismark119861985
Baxter Ridge120252023
Dresden120252013
Botkins120142014
Darrtown120212018
Harveysburg119891989

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.