BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in New Mexico has surged: up 505% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+505%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in New Mexico: up 505% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.53.25.8
20274.53.35.8
20284.63.35.9
20294.73.45.9
20304.73.46.0

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita3820191992
Bitter Lake2920251994
Sabinoso2920211980
Laborcita 21920252022
Variadero1720221994
Capitan Mtn.1720171993
San Antonio1619771974
Mesilla1220001992
Logan1120251977
Tucumcari1019751975
Escondida1020251998
Maxwell1020251996
Roswell920251974
Mountainair920241999
Queen920211993
Lakewood820211980
Grenville620251968
Valencia619971969
Gallinas520251992
Hobbs520251995
Angel Fire 2520242005
Sedan420251994
Red Rock420251992
Aztec419891988
Farley320251979

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.