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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+342%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Nebraska: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.5–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.34.8
20273.62.34.9
20283.72.45.0
20293.72.45.0
20303.82.55.1

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sumner2420251977
Dalton1620251968
Ringgold1620251990
Stratton1420251975
Brady1420251980
Boelus1420222018
Paxton1120161967
Crescent Lk1120251980
Culbertson1120252018
Murray Lake1020251987
Crawford920251980
Sutherland920252023
Hendley920252018
Berwyn920101994
Sparta820251967
Johnstown820251967
Brownlee820251990
Mullen820231999
Crookston820252018
Midway720251967
Arthur720251998
Nenzel720252018
Lyons720252018
Bartley620251967
Oconto619751975

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.