BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+269%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Nebraska: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 2.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.24.6
20263.42.24.6
20273.52.34.7
20283.52.34.7
20293.62.44.8

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boelus1420222018
Hendley1320242018
Stratton1220241975
Midway1220231967
Berwyn 21220182014
Paxton1120161967
Bartley1020241967
Petersburg1020231979
Crookston1020242018
Brady920241980
Berwyn920101994
Kenesaw820241980
Benkelman820221986
Arthur820241998
Mullen820231999
Dalton720241968
Sparta720211967
Sumner620241977
Oconto619751975
Eagle Creek620241968
Swan Lake620232007
Murray Lake620241987
Nenzel620242018
Sargent620242021
Agate 2620242007

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.