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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Blue Grosbeak in Florida has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blue Grosbeak Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blue Grosbeak has surged in Florida: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Blue Grosbeak Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Florida is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Grosbeak in Florida is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.5–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.46.2
20273.81.46.3
20283.91.46.3
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20303.91.56.3

Blue Grosbeak Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Blue Grosbeak in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale6120111987
Miller Xrds2520191987
Eglin A.F.B.2420111995
New Hope2420112009
Pinetta2120251987
Broad Branch2020251967
Seminole Hills 21920222012
Hildreth 21720252011
Blountstown1620251966
Blackwater1420251987
Bloxham1220221987
Callahan1120241987
Miccosukee1020251966
Dowling Park1020251987
Port St Joe920111970
Belmont820251966
Belmore820241968
Hixtown Swmp820251987
Mossy Head720111966
Steinhatchee720251967
Laurel Hill720252010
Mt. Olive720252003
Nixon719861985
Sanderson620211970
Nobleton620251991

Blue Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.