BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

83 species in this guild. As a group they are -6%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Texas. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.5–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.52.4
20272.01.52.4
20282.01.52.4
20292.01.52.4
20302.01.52.4

Member Species In Texas

Forest birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American RedstartParulidae-84%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-83%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-83%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-79%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-79%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-78%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-76%
Hepatic TanagerCardinalidae-75%
PyrrhuloxiaCardinalidae-74%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-71%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae-70%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-68%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-55%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae-53%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-47%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae-44%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-41%
Golden-fronted WoodpeckerPicidae-34%
Buff-bellied HummingbirdTrochilidae-33%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-32%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-32%
Northern ParulaParulidae-31%
Varied BuntingCardinalidae-28%
Lesser GoldfinchFringillidae-24%
Altamira OrioleIcteridae-23%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-17%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-17%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae-16%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-15%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-15%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae-14%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae-11%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-11%
Black-chinned HummingbirdTrochilidae-8%
Woodhouse's Scrub-JayCorvidae-4%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-1%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+2%
Groove-billed AniCuculidae+3%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+5%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+6%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae+7%
BushtitAegithalidae+9%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+21%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+23%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+33%
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+37%
American RobinTurdidae+38%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+43%
Scott's OrioleIcteridae+52%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+56%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+59%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+62%
Black-crested TitmouseParidae+63%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+63%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+63%
Blue JayCorvidae+65%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+66%
Gray VireoVireonidae+72%
Western BluebirdTurdidae+72%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+79%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+85%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+87%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+97%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+99%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+110%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+124%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+153%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+156%
Pine WarblerParulidae+177%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+180%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+238%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+245%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+274%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+278%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+307%
Golden-cheeked WarblerParulidae+311%
Hooded OrioleIcteridae+481%
Green JayCorvidae+565%
Black-capped VireoVireonidae+625%
Olive SparrowPasserellidae+632%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+643%
Audubon's OrioleIcteridae+649%
Long-billed ThrasherMimidae+730%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.