BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

46 species in this guild. As a group they are +28%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Texas. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Texas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.21.9
20261.51.21.9
20271.51.21.9
20281.51.21.9
20291.51.21.9

Member Species In Texas

Forest birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American RedstartParulidae-84%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-76%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-71%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-64%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-55%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-55%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-54%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae-50%
Northern ParulaParulidae-41%
Golden-fronted WoodpeckerPicidae-38%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-28%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae-22%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-20%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-20%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-9%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae-8%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-6%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-2%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+3%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+4%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+18%
American RobinTurdidae+26%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+27%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+39%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+44%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+46%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+51%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+63%
Gray VireoVireonidae+67%
Western BluebirdTurdidae+72%
Black-crested TitmouseParidae+79%
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+99%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+99%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+132%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+132%
Pine WarblerParulidae+145%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+148%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+150%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+222%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+226%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+247%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+302%
Golden-cheeked WarblerParulidae+322%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+322%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+610%
Black-capped VireoVireonidae+664%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.