BirdAnalyst
Guild · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Texas

All statesTexas

46 species in this guild. As a group they are +28%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Texas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.21.9
20261.51.21.9
20271.51.21.9
20281.51.21.9
20291.51.21.9

Member Species In Texas

Forest birds species in Texas.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
American RedstartParulidae-84%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae-76%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-71%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-64%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-55%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-55%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-54%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae-50%
Northern ParulaParulidae-41%
Golden-fronted WoodpeckerPicidae-38%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-28%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae-22%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-20%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-20%
Bewick's WrenTroglodytidae-9%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae-8%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-6%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae-2%
Ladder-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+3%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+4%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+18%
American RobinTurdidae+26%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+27%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+39%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+44%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+46%
Prairie WarblerParulidae+51%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+63%
Gray VireoVireonidae+67%
Western BluebirdTurdidae+72%
Black-crested TitmouseParidae+79%
Acorn WoodpeckerPicidae+99%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+99%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+132%
Bell's VireoVireonidae+132%
Pine WarblerParulidae+145%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+148%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+150%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+222%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+226%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+247%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+302%
Golden-cheeked WarblerParulidae+322%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+322%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+610%
Black-capped VireoVireonidae+664%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.