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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Texas has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has risen sharply in Texas: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.05–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.05–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.040.37
20270.210.040.37
20280.210.040.38
20290.210.050.38
20300.210.050.38

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Gap820251988
Castolon520251994
Bear Mtn420251988
Devils R Cyn420251994
Ozona420051995
Utopia320251973
Adamsville320251982
Casa Piedra320251986
Chisos Basin220251995
Valley Spgs220021997
Harper220251969
Pidcoke220091969
Winchell220051969
Hot Springs220101968
Silver220252002
Indian Mtn220241976
Ft. Davis120232004
Dripping Spg120231994
Campbellton119761976
Pidcoke 2120252025
Boerne119981969
Fitzhugh119821969
San Saba119741974
Osage120231969
Leakey120241994

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.