BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Texas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Texas. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.04–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.040.37
20260.200.040.37
20270.200.040.37
20280.210.040.37
20290.210.040.37

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Mtn920151988
Chisos Basin620191995
Adamsville520231982
Castolon520241994
Devils R Cyn520241994
Harper420241969
Black Gap420231988
Ozona420051995
Utopia320141973
Valley Spgs220021997
Pidcoke220091969
Winchell220051969
Hot Springs220101968
Silver220242002
Indian Mtn220241976
Ft. Davis120232004
Dripping Spg120231994
Campbellton119761976
Boerne119981969
Fitzhugh119821969
San Saba119741974
Osage120231969
Casa Piedra119861986
Leakey120241994
Glen Rose120002000

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.