BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Arizona has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Arizona is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.000.97
20260.450.000.97
20270.450.000.97
20280.450.000.97
20290.460.000.97

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2920182015
Forest Lakes520241993
Casa Grande420211989
Dragoon320091993
Cutter320141992
Cabeza Priet320192014
Florence219731968
Ajo220081968
Peña Blanca220241975
Riviera220241992
Alamo Res.220231992
Bartlett Res220231992
House Rock119991999
The Gap119681968
Organ Pipe119911990
Portal120211976
Rucker120071995
Oatman120141988
Wikieup120242000
Prescott120021986
Hunt119861984
Aztec Peak119781978
Blue119911974
San Simon120011979
Patagonia120231968

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.