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Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in California has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in California. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in California is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.01–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in California is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.01–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.010.33
20260.170.010.33
20270.170.010.33
20280.170.010.33
20290.170.010.33

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Canyon Wren in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kings Canyon720241972
Cohasset620231972
Mt Baldy420241971
White River419921972
Angelus Oaks420161990
Elsinore Mtn320241970
Dorris320191974
Deep Springs320161977
Jofegan320182009
Forest Hill320221997
Bass Lake220191976
Big Pine220031978
Orange Cove220111974
Sawmill Mtn220141970
Tujunga220211970
Fallsvale219811971
Silver City220131973
Anza219951995
Likely220181974
Tehama220161976
Pine Mountain219971997
Rumsey120011970
Dardanelle120151986
Yokohl Val119971976
Ubehebe119861986

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.