BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Colorado has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-35%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Colorado is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Colorado is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.14
20260.050.000.14
20270.050.000.14
20280.050.000.14
20290.050.000.14

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rosevale420232009
Baxter Pass420241995
Cheesman Lk320102007
Wilson Creek320181996
Buford220131981
Dolores Riv219911991
Westcliffe220101998
Harmony120191973
Mesaverde Np120041996
Douglas Pass120191987
Delta120171987
Dolores119841974
Wray Gulch120191995
Cortez 2120152009
Tarryall119891989
Villegreen120162000
Gribbles Prk119981998
Animas120031998
Antonito120001997
Walsenburg120161994
De Beque120242019
Guanella Pas120182018
Paonia119971995
Wet Mtns.120071996
Angora120172007

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.