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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Nevada has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+130%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Nevada: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Nevada is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±212.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±212.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Nevada is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±212.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.49
20260.150.000.49
20270.150.000.49
20280.140.000.49
20290.140.000.49

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally520241996
Jarbidge320122006
Carson River320012001
Fish Creek220181997
Bald Mtn.120242007
Sand Pass120241990
Comins Lake120132013
Humboldt Nf120182005
Oreana120032003
Dobbin Creek119731973
Willis120191997
Hawthorne119991997
Hiko119681968

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.