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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Oregon has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+119%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Oregon: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.02–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.02–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.010.28
20270.150.010.28
20280.150.010.28
20290.150.010.28
20300.150.020.28

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim420251993
Blizzard Gap320252010
Logdell220222019
Twickenham220252010
Newbridge220252001
Three Forks120122004
Blitzen 2120182018
Imnaha120251971
Summit Pr120122012
Deschutes120251974
Ochoco119811977
Bridgeport120251999
Wagontire119731973
Wedderburn119701970
Modoc Point120101986
Blitzen119841976
Joseph120051973
Eagle Rock119741971
Sparta119761973
Eightmile120041982
Clearwater119911991
Clover Creek119761976
Silver Creek120082005
Adrian120251984
Secret Val119801977

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.