BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in New Mexico has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-19%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±347.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±347.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in New Mexico is projected to rise about 96% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.06–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±347.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.050.47
20270.260.050.47
20280.260.050.47
20290.260.050.47
20300.270.060.48

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Canyon Wren in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Rock520042002
Emory Pass520251993
Reserve320231995
Queen320191993
Sabinoso320191980
Gage220071969
Angel Fire 2220172014
Vicks Peak220241993
Ojo Sarco120041970
Farley119871987
Grenville120191972
Salt Lake 2120172017
Torreon120161995
La Cienega120031969
Pecos120142014
Wagon Mound119711971
Fence Lake119771977
Correo119821981
Horse Spgs120171979
Horse Mtn120092009
Carrizozo120181977
Magdalena120152000
Counselor120191993
Mcgaffey120181996
Vallecitos120081995

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.