BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Utah has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-88%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has collapsed in Utah: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Utah is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Utah is projected to fall about 84% by 2030 — from 0.34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.69
20270.090.000.68
20280.070.000.67
20290.070.000.66
20300.060.000.65

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Altonah1219691969
Hatch1120251994
Castleton519851969
Moab520251986
Jericho Junction319971997
Boulder220251968
Fayette220251992
Newcastle220181998
Notom219911991
Cane Spr Des220112006
Promontory120251995
Hyrum119781975
Book Ridge120242003
Arches Np120061991
Goshen120241974
Dragerton119881969
Willow Creek120041999
Gilson Butte 2120162016
Beaver120251982
Bryce Canyon119941994
Crawford Mts120102006
Canyonlands119991999
Navajo Lake120001968
Hite120161986
Aneth120091986

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.