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Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Washington has surged: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+217%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Washington: up 217% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Washington is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Washington is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.030.20
20260.120.040.20
20270.120.040.20
20280.120.040.20
20290.120.040.21

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yakima320241994
Moses Coulee220231996
Nighthawk220241995
Lake Chelan220241988
Bickleton220151984
Newhalem120222022
Twisp120241983
Mazama120192019
Ewan120082001
Chewelah120162016
Omak Creek120111996
Ardenvoir119841968
Rimrock120241985
Curlew120182002
Mt Rainier119931992
Cloverland120162003
Columbia Nwr120022002
Winthrop119991999

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.