BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in South Dakota has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+29%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.080.000.17
20240.080.000.17
20250.080.000.17
20260.090.000.17
20270.090.000.17

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Canyon Wren in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Fox220121995
Hazelrodt120182006
Lightning Cr120182004
Badlands119871985
Pleasant Val120072007
Wind Cave Np120122012
Long Draw120221992
Roubaix Lk119761976

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.