BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Oklahoma has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+123%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Oklahoma: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 72% by 2027 — from 0.11 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 72% by 2027 — from 0.11 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.170.010.33
20240.180.020.33
20250.180.020.34
20260.180.030.34
20270.190.030.34

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East220222004
Wichita Mts West220222005
Reed120171992
Cooperton120141992
Sickles119921992

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.