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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+63%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.02–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.010.33
20270.170.020.33
20280.170.020.33
20290.180.020.33
20300.180.020.34

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts West320252005
Wichita Mtns East220222004
Reed120171992
Cooperton120141992
Sickles119921992

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.