BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Idaho has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-78%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canyon Wren Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has collapsed in Idaho: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Canyon Wren Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.34
20260.070.000.34
20270.060.000.33
20280.060.000.33
20290.060.000.33

Canyon Wren Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alturas619691969
Salmon River520211988
Magic Mtn320241990
Centerville220052005
Almo120231988
Gifford120171986
Silver City120032003
Challis120221977
Leadore120212021
Triangle120212021
Pasadena Val120061996
Dougal Res120152015

Canyon Wren Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.