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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acorn Woodpecker Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Acorn Woodpecker in Texas has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+99%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acorn Woodpecker Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acorn Woodpecker in Texas. See the full index history below.

Acorn Woodpecker Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.05
20250.020.000.05
20260.020.000.05
20270.020.000.05
20280.020.000.05

Acorn Woodpecker Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Acorn Woodpecker in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. Davis320232019
Chisos Basin220231997
Toyahvale120091997
Valentine119871975
Bear Mtn120191992

Acorn Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacalifornianew-mexicooregon

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.