BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acorn Woodpecker Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Acorn Woodpecker in New Mexico has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+107%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acorn Woodpecker Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acorn Woodpecker has surged in New Mexico: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Acorn Woodpecker Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acorn Woodpecker in New Mexico is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.57
20260.280.000.58
20270.280.000.58
20280.280.000.58
20290.290.000.58

Acorn Woodpecker Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Acorn Woodpecker in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve2020231993
Emory Pass1420241993
Horse Mtn720221970
Claunch 2320212014
Cloudcroft320221975
Vicks Peak220241992
Horse Spgs219791979
Mcgaffey220171994
Mt. Taylor219971997
Dulce120052005
Cebolla120172017
Fence Lake119791979
Carrizozo119821978

Acorn Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaoregontexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.