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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-cheeked Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Golden-cheeked Warbler in Texas has surged: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+322%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-cheeked Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-cheeked Warbler has surged in Texas: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Golden-cheeked Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Golden-cheeked Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-cheeked Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.20
20260.090.000.20
20270.100.000.20
20280.100.000.20
20290.100.000.20

Golden-cheeked Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Golden-cheeked Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Leakey820231994
Dripping Spg320231992
Indian Mtn320241976
Allen Creek220232019
Pidcoke220092001
Montell220132010
Utopia220221985
Whit Mtn.119971994
Graford120182018
Prairie Mtn.120162011
Rockspring120012001
Fitzhugh119711971
Boerne119671967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.