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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Texas has surged: up 664% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+664%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Vireo Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Vireo has surged in Texas: up 664% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Black-capped Vireo Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.12–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.32 (95% range 0.12–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.100.50
20260.300.100.50
20270.310.100.51
20280.310.110.51
20290.320.120.52

Black-capped Vireo Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allen Creek1620241994
Indian Mtn1520241976
San Saba420242015
Leakey420241994
Dripping Spg219851985
Longfellow220051993
Whit Mtn.220031994
Chisos Basin120242000
Pidcoke 2120242024
Utopia120231978
Harper120242005
Pear Valley120242009
Montell120231997
Prairie Mtn.120132013
Rockspring120241994
Devils R Cyn120231994
Comstock120232019
Duran119961996
Silver120242024
Eldorado120192007

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend in Other States

oklahoma

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.