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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Vireo in Oklahoma has surged: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+422%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Vireo Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Vireo has surged in Oklahoma: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-capped Vireo Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.65 (95% range 0.18–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±472.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±472.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.65 (95% range 0.18–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±472.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.141.1
20270.620.151.1
20280.630.161.1
20290.640.171.1
20300.650.181.1

Black-capped Vireo Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Black-capped Vireo in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East1220252004
Wichita Mts West520252004
Verden119731967
Cooperton120252021

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend in Other States

texas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.