BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Vireo

VireonidaeForest birdsVireo atricapilla

Black-capped Vireo has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

20×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black-capped Vireo

The Black-capped Vireo (Vireo atricapilla) is a North American member of the Vireos (Vireonidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–6 in long (11–15 cm) — a small, deliberate songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 24 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the Edwards Plateau.
Family
Vireonidae · Forest birds

Notable Black-capped Vireo TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Vireo. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Vireo Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Vireo is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.02–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.020.04
20260.030.020.04
20270.030.020.04
20280.030.020.04
20290.030.020.04

Where the Black-capped Vireo Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black-capped Vireo, sized by most recent count.

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend by State

Black-capped Vireo population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oklahoma+529%19734
Texas+664%197820

Black-capped Vireo Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black-capped Vireo population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+440%19737
Edwards Plateau+675%197811
Chihuahuan Desert-34%19954

Black-capped Vireo Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1934% since 1973.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.